Forecast after halving
Another Bitcoin halving, the third one, is different from the previous two. Experts predicted five possible scenarios.
Minimal consequences: nothing extraordinary will happen immediately after the halving. This is a likely scenario in which volatility will vary from 1 to 5%.
A fairly positive scenario: the situation will develop according to the well-known Stock-to-flow model. Although this scenario is considered realistic, some points are quite controversial.
Negative scenario: Traders who purchased BTC based on rumors will sell tokens based on the news. The scenario is quite probable. CoinShares are sent to the Litecoin cryptocurrency halving last year. Four months after halving, the value has dropped. In this theory, the value of bitcoin depends on speculative traders.
Negative scenario: another likely scenario, which includes the additional pressure of miners on the cryptocurrency value. The effect will be amplified if the rate drops.
Catastrophic scenario: halving will become a catalyst of the “death spiral” for miners. This is the most unlikely theory, according to which the bitcoin cost will drop and miners will start turning off the equipment. This will provoke stagnation of the BTC network, the hash rate will decrease, block generation will slow down. Everything will stop in the end.